"I haven't been assigned a security detail the way people might think, but I do feel that the police are always there, near me, although I can't see them. And that gives me a sense of security. I never look behind my back when I'm out in the street, and I don't think about whether someone will attack me.
"I believe that someone monitors everything and thinks about everything. After the antivaxxers' protest outside my home, and also when the graffiti 'Kon is Mengele' appeared on the wall of my building, I saw police officers nearby for a couple of days. They try not to be fully visible though," Dr Predrag Kon, chief physician, epidemiologist, member of the Covid-19 Task Force, and Reserve Lieutenant Colonel in the Armed Forces Medical Service, said in his interview with Kurir.
Is all this worth the sort of life in which the police have to always be watching your back?
"I've received a lot of support from everyone – the epidemiology section of the Serbian Medical Society, colleagues that I've worked with for years, the Belgrade Jewish Community, the President of the Federation of Jewish Communities of Serbia, as well as my former commanding officer, retired lieutenant colonel general. People in the street thank me for what I do, for making an effort to help them. I bow deeply to them all and thank them, because it's their support that keeps me going. When you receive it, you feel you're on the right track and just keep at it. The support I've received from the President of Serbia, the Prime Minister, the Minister of Health of the Republic of Serbia, as well as all the members of the Task Force medical wing, has certainly made a difference."
So you are not a deserter, as you have been called by Dr Dejan Žujović, who has announced that he will be pressing charges against you and the Task Force?
"All criticism is welcome, but there's a line beyond which it isn't criticism anymore. Those kinds of things must be weighed very carefully. I need to wait for my legal team to prepare and put everything together. I'm planning on filing a criminal complaint soon."
Will you also bring criminal charges against those who were protesting and writing anti-Semitic, threatening graffiti? You have said that the police know some of their names.
"Many of those who got deluded and dragged into it are completely unaware of their own actions, and this must be explained to them. However, some individuals are fully aware of everything, and they must be selected carefully, because they're refusing to acknowledge that they're responsible for committing a very serious act. This is no longer about Predrag Kon, this is – indirectly, through me – an attack on an entire nation. My life isn't important either anymore. I feel that all the victims from that suffering nation's past are written on that wall. I'll be doing what is legally possible. I cannot act as if nothing is going on anymore, as if nothing had happened when that writing appeared on the wall of my building."
'24/7 COVID PASSES IMPOSSIBLE IS A HOLLOW EXPLANATION'
Don't you think that it is a ridiculous explanation to say that controlling Covid passes 24/7 isn't possible?
"I said in a Task Force meeting point-blank that it was hollow and unacceptable. But I was told that we cannot introduce 24/7 Covid passes because we are simply unable to control them."
Well, the inspectors don't have to always be around, but people should know that they can come in at any time and that you can be fined.
"That is precisely the objective. But the medical wing of the Task Force cannot go about it differently. There is no other idea."
Let's go back to the epidemic. In October we had as many as 200,760 new infections, which is beyond disastrous.
"This is a prolonged wave. The epidemiological situation is a disaster, and it beggars belief that we don't have a response by the whole community, in the sense of understanding the personal responsibility in helping and getting vaccinated."
Although Delta Plus variant has not yet been registered, do you think that it is already among us?
"It's more than likely that it's among us, but it hasn't yet shown its full potential. The disastrous situation in Croatia and all of Europe is attributed to the Delta Plus strain – although there's no proof – and to heading into the disease season. We cannot stand apart from the whole world. We still have an expected drop amid disastrous circumstances. However, we don't have time because Delta Plus is bound to get here, or show itself, if it is already here. Restrictions aren't taken on board, and I myself cannot accept the fact that they cannot be enforced, because it's important to reduce virus activity. We need as high vaccination rates as possible, as primary prevention."
Does this mean that we will have over 10,000 daily infections or, put differently, a million in four months?
"It's very hard to tell, but what's for sure is that the virus will be in circulation. Whether it's going to be a million or slightly less, I cannot say, given that many people have been infected already and acquired immunity, and that we have vaccinated a significant portion of the population. For these reasons, you can make relatively reliable estimates no more than two weeks in advance. I think enforcing Covid passes from 8 pm will have an effect, even though they're not valid around the clock, as will the short school holiday."
Is there an end to the fourth wave? What will New Year's be like?
"The only thing we can do is make an estimate for the coming two weeks. No more than that. We can expect a slight decrease in the next two weeks, which still leaves us with a terribly high number. If everything that the medical wing of the Task Force had been implemented, we wouldn't be in this situation."
'I REQUESTED THE NUMBER OF DEATHS AND DIDN'T GET THE NUMBER OF THE JABBED'
Why don't you publish how many vaccinated and unvaccinated people die? North Macedonia has published that 18% of the people who have died were vaccinated. Perhaps that could help to build trust – not hiding anything from people.
"We discussed this in a Task Force meeting back in September. I eventually submitted a written request on 10 October, in order to have a record of my submission."
You still haven't received a reply?
"No."
Who did you request the information from specifically?
"Through the PM, the Ministry of Health, the Batut Institute, through everyone."
Why is it a problem to say that?
"I don't know. Ask them. And another thing – here people expect to receive a reply at the drop of a hat, as if we were the most developed country in the world. That said, the wait for the data is too long."
Each patient's medical charts, even their beds, have the information on whether they have been vaccinated or not.
"I sometimes think that, if I just went to see each of them on foot, I would have an answer to this question in three days, for one sample at least. On the other hand, data on the number of vaccinations and the vaccines administered is obtained daily during hospital admissions."
Can you predict when the coronavirus will end?
"It'll be around next year as well, but what will happen then and when the virus will loosen its grip, I do not know. The virus has survived on the planet, and it's not likely that we will get rid of it. We have to get vaccinated, and whoever doesn't get that is putting the health of the entire nation in harm's way. The only way for the immunization to go on is to keep talking about vaccination."
Do you feel responsible for getting a bunch of contradictory data and public statements, leading many people to doubt the official reports? We have nearly 70 deaths per day, and you yourself have said that the number is two and a half times bigger. Does this mean that we have no fewer than 170 deaths a day?
"I think the number is even higher. Had there not been for the vaccines and epidemiological measures, we might have had 10 times more deaths."
200 deaths a day? Really?
"No, we cannot say anything offhand. The 69 daily deaths is a registered number and what the government releases live. Subsequent analyses of mortality rates, conducted literally per month, determine the so-called excess deaths with respect to a 10-year average, which is then attributed to the epidemic. It contains everyone – those who have died of Covid both directly and indirectly. These are two different methods, and apples and pears should be kept apart, so that people aren't confused. As for excess deaths, there's no doubt that we're in for a difficult year because huge health system capacities have been redirected to Covid patients, so that the patients with conditions not related to Covid have been put on delay or given up treatment for fear of infection, resulting in some of them dying."
Regarding the 10 times more deaths, we have 54 percent of vaccinated adults and the same number of deaths as in December 2019, when we didn't have the vaccine. Does this mean that back then we had 10 times more deaths than what the official numbers indicated?
"No. It depends on how large the virus circulation is."
Well, it was large then as well.
"Much less than now. The problem is that you didn’t get protection from infection and virus transmission after two vaccine doses. This largely happens after the third dose. An increase in infections started on 27 June 2021 and didn't stop until seven weeks ago. Since then, the epidemiological curve has straightened out at a very high daily average of 6,000 to 7,000 new infections. Now we're in week eight, and for the first time the seven-day average of new infections is below 6,000."
'I DON'T DEVALUE MYSELF'
You keep saying that you are still in favour of closing everything that isn't essential, at least from 5 pm.
"We won't give up on this until the number of new infections drops."
Aren't you only devaluing yourself in this way, because it's clear that those who make the decisions won't do that?
"Well, sorry, but I have a different point of view. What's the alternative? Who's devaluing whom? Is the person trying and crying for help responsible if no one comes to their aid? Therefore, I'm certainly not devaluing myself, nor is the medical wing of the Task Force. It can only be different."
'MEDICAL LICENSES SHOULD NOT BE REVOKED PERMANENTLY'
The Serbian Medical Chamber will be starting disciplinary proceedings against the doctors who have prescribed Ivermectin. Interestingly, you are not in favour of harsh punishments and permanent licence revocation.
"I asked Prof Pelemiš about Ivermectin. The team in charge of Covid treatment and protocol hasn't introduced it because it's not registered for use in human medicine, and there is no evidence of its effectiveness. Most importantly, legal obligations and norms cannot be sidestepped, i.e. the Medicines and Medical Devices Agency of Serbia (MAMDAS) must approve a medication."
The MAMDAS has not approved it, but Ivermectin is on the D list of the National Health Insurance Fund as an unregistered medication, which means that it can be administered in special circumstances and with special approval.
"But it isn't in the treatment protocol, which is drawn up by the treatment team in the current epidemic. That's why I said that medical licenses shouldn't be revoked so easily and straightaway. That said, a serious warning to the effect that this cannot be done is necessary."
What does a serious warning mean?
"Either you revoke the licence temporarily, for a short period of time, or something else in line with the procedure. The Serbian Medical Chamber must make a decision and have a compelling reason to go through with it."
Kurir.rs/Jelena S. Spasić
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