"The excess mortality in Serbia in September stands at over 15 percent. This excess remains stable and doesn't attract enough attention. Nor is it solely related to the coronavirus itself; rather, it is also a consequence of the so-called long Covid and delaying treatment due to fear of infection," Dr Predrag Kon, epidemiologist, chief physician, and advisor at the City Institute for Public Health in Belgrade, says in his interview with Kurir.
Those are excess death compared to the ten-year pre-pandemic average? 15 percent seems quite high.
"That's a higher number than, I think, the pre-pandemic ten-year average in September. It isn't the same in all countries, and it's even been recorded in the United Kingdom now. 15 percent is a lot, so I don't wish to scare anyone, but to make them go see a doctor and be paying attention to the symptoms. Having said that, Serbia has never had an excess mortality of 100 percent, as some countries have, not for a single month, even in the worst period."
Is long Covid killing us now?
"An analysis conducted by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has revealed that nearly 51 percent of those hospitalized have long Covid – also known as long-term Covid – for six months, especially if they were in an intensive care unit, in which case 78 percent of them have it. At any rate, the same thing was the case after the flu – there were long-term effects. I'd been saying that for over 20 years, but no one listened because no one wanted to do the research. What's important is to know that vaccination is a measure which has proven to be highly effective – it has affected the entire course of the epidemic and considerably reduced not only the mortality but also the number of infections, and, consequently, the virus circulation – which it nonetheless has failed to stop."
But who is still getting vaccinated? Hardly anyone even checks the daily coronavirus information.
"We wrongly believe that vaccination is not an answer. It bears repeating that each medical doctor should discuss this with their patients. But the doctors should also be familiar with how the vaccine works and what its benefits are, it shouldn't be forced upon them. I will always say – vaccination, vaccination, vaccination."
People will say that you are mad.
"Let them say I'm mad. That is not the point. The point is to endeavour to let the truth speak for itself. When it reaches a single person and makes them protect themselves, it's a success for me. I've been said to have allegedly been muddling people's minds, which I reject – it isn't true. Now, what's also important is the virus change dynamic – the BQ1 Omicron subvariant is significant, having reached as high as 68 percent in the sampling conducted in Spain."
RSV ATTACKS ADULTS AS WELL NOW
Are old viruses making a return?
"The RSV (respiratory syncytial viruses), which are circulating anyway, are now increasingly present and getting stronger. Furthermore, RSV are shifting from children to adults too, which wasn't the case before at all. The pandemic has affected the whole ecology, it has changed the biological structure of the region. One gets the impression that a large number of both respiratory and viral infections has decreased in number, but the question is whether this is the case of subregistration."
Is the new bivalent vaccine, which will be administered in Serbia as well in about a month or so, effective against it?
"Not only that – the existing one, which contains only the Wuhan strain, is effective too. The need for new doses is very clearly indicated in the studies conducted. Those who take a booster jab get better protection, especially against death and severe forms of the disease."
Will you be the first to roll up your sleeve when the fifth dose becomes official, and the bivalent vaccine starts getting administered?
"For sure. The Immunization Committee has already recommended it for those aged 50 and above and people with chronic conditions."
Should we be more afraid of the flu than of corona now?
"The best thing to do is to avoid it, at least its severe form, especially if you are among the elderly population and groups who are at risk, by taking a vaccine. You do not get full protection and can still get ill even if you're vaccinated, but the flu is an altogether different sort of disease then. The fight for vaccination is yet to become more visible, because it will become increasingly clear that those vaccinated fare much better than those who are not."
Do you expect a new wave?
"I don't expect any significant developments for at least ten days or so. However, we've had Saint Michael the Archangel's family celebrations and there's also the cold weather, with people spending time in closed spaces. There's been an increase in infections in Italy, the United Kingdom, and Spain, but it's still low-intensity and not dangerous."
Does this mean that the coronavirus is practically dead?
"Sadly, the coronavirus is not dead. The problem is that it keeps changing and always searching for new avenues. You cannot say that it's all over if in less than a month a subvariant goes from a few percent to 50 percent. That is why it is necessary to strengthen our immune systems by booster doses."
'DISAPPOINTED BY A GREAT FRIEND AND EXPERT'
Who has disappointed you the most?
"The man I considered a great friend and expert has disappointed me. He knows who he is. And it's all beyond repair. Some people are trying to put us in touch, but it won't happen."
And what for you is the gravest problem of this epidemic?
"The fact that we didn't adhere by the measures, and that the measures proposed by us from the medical wing of the Task Force weren't implemented."
The Task Force officially doesn't exist anymore since the formation of the new government. Has anyone from the old or new government gotten in touch with you?
"Why would they get in touch with me?"
Not even Danica Grujičić as the head of the relevant ministry?
"I know her and wish her all success in her work, but we haven't heard from each other since she became Minister of Health. I have no formal rights anymore, and I shouldn't interfere, because I can only be in the way. That's how I see it."
'MY LABOUR MARKET EXIT AGE HAS BEEN EXTENDED AS LONG AS THERE IS A THREAT EVEN THOUGH I HAVE MET THE CONDITIONS FOR RETIREMENT'
Minister Grujičić plans that everyone in the healthcare system who has long met the conditions for retirement should retire. You met those conditions back in 2020, and yet you're still active.
"I haven't retired, my labour market exit age has been extended as long as there is a threat, and the threat is still there. I'm an advisor at the Centre for Disease Control at the City Institute, and I will go into retirement the day I'm told that I don't have to be an advisor anymore. I have no job on the side, nor have I had other engagements."
How do you feel? Betrayed?
"Why would I be feeling betrayed?"
Has anyone thanked you at all? Are you not disappointed?
"I was given a certain task, a job, and I went about it with full dedication. I am not disappointed in the slightest, and I want to make this perfectly clear. I was fully aware that my task is temporary and that I shouldn't expect anything for it."
You are a soldier, a lieutenant colonel, and a soldier does his duty?
"All of that is true, but the important thing is that the job was getting done and that the recommendations were very clearly put forward at all times, whether they were adhered to or not. I've never had the intention to run everything, to take government decisions. They must be taken by those with the relevant authority, and my job, as well as the job of my colleagues from the Task Force medical wing, was to do what we knew best, which is what we did. When the job was, well, I can't say done, but when the virus intensity got reduced, the most sensible thing to do was for it to be taken over by those who always ought to run it. However, the WHO hasn't revoked the Public Health Emergency of International Concern, and the fact remains that the dynamic of this virus is still very much ongoing."
Will you be there should the need arise?
"Of course I'll be there for as long as I can walk and say anything."
Kurir.rs/Jelena S. Spasić
