Russia sent app. 200,000 soldiers into the "special military operation", which was not enough to defeat the Ukrainian army, so an addition of about 300,000 more freshly mobilized fighters is now expected
On 24 February, Russia's President Vladimir Putin ordered an attack against Ukraine – the largest military offensive in Europe since World War II. "Russia cannot feel safe, or develop and exist while there is a constant threat in the territory of what is Ukraine today," he said and started a fight for the "historical future of the fatherland."
When the Russian troops, marked by the Latin letters Z, V, and O, attacked Ukraine from all possible directions, and rockets started to destroy Kyiv, Kharkov, and other major cities, some were already celebrating Moscow's victory. The attack looks like a video game, they're demolishing them at high speed, people used to say during the first days of the war. Even those more inclined towards Ukraine thought that the situation was simple – the second most powerful army in the world had attacked a much weaker country. What was expected was an outcome similar to that of the Five-Day War in Georgia.
MYTH OF INVINCIBILITY
However, they forgot that power on paper does not translate into power on the ground, especially in a foreign country. At any rate, is there a better indicator of that than the fact that only six months earlier, the most powerful army in the world – the US Armed Forces – withdrew quite chaotically as the Taliban advanced, walked into Kabul wearing slippers and carrying bazookas over their shoulders, and took control of it.
Of course, the Russian army had some success in Ukraine, but not to the extent they expected. They conquered large portions of Lugansk and Donetsk, where they had had a military presence since 2014. What followed was the fall of the Kherson area, and heavy fights were being waged in the Kharkov area. The army, under the command of Vladimir Putin, took control of Sumy, as well as the areas to the north of Kyiv, with the tanks coming so close to the Ukrainian capital city that it seemed it was a matter of hours before it too would fall.
And then the myth of the Russian military invincibility got broken just like the 60-kilometre-long column of tanks approaching Kyiv. The photographs and images of destroyed tanks, trucks stuck in the snow or mud, and even of destroyed vessels, such as the Moskva cruiser, dispelled that myth fast. This made Russia change its strategy, as it retreated from the north and concentrated all its forces to conquer Mariupol. That did not go well either – in order to conquer the city after nearly three months of fighting, what it took was turning it into a bloodbath and nearly razing it. The hard-won victory galvanized the Russian troops, following which Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell, and the advance – however slow – continued. Estimates that the war might last for years were becoming more and more rife.
THE TURNAROUND
After the stagnation at the front over the summer, a turnaround took place – Ukraine went into a counteroffensive. There was progress in the fights around Kherson, where the Russian Army got reinforcements, but it was slow and difficult, while the reward for the gamble and attack against the Kharkov area was extremely fast – the entire area was liberated in only a few days. The surrendering and running away of the Russian soldiers made such a splash that not even the tightly controlled Russian media could ignore it. Vladimir Putin himself admitted to "some mistakes" at the front, and then declared a "partial mobilization".
Suddenly the Russian media too started to claim that approximately 200,000 Russian soldiers and up to 20,000 locals fighting on Moscow's side were not enough to defeat the Ukrainian army, which the president of that country, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claimed had no fewer than app. 700,000 soldiers. It was also pointed out that the Russian weaponry deployed in the "special military operation" was relatively outdated, and criticism was voiced of the fact that the most modern systems, which Russia has and has been presenting for years, had not been used in the fights. The United States of America and its allies had been sending to the Ukrainian army huge quantities of the most modern weapons throughout, and this was noticeable at the front – first the Javelins stopped an enormous number of tanks, and then the HIMARS shifted the fights to the territories held by the Russians.
" The truth is on our side and truth is strength!' Vladimir Putin boomed into a microphone on Red Square last week. [...] 'Victory will be ours!' But in the real world, things look very different. Even as Russia's president signed his illegal annexation treaties in the Kremlin, Ukrainian forces were advancing inside the areas he had just seized. Hundreds of thousands of men have been fleeing Russia rather than be drafted to fight [...]. And things are going so badly on the battlefield that Mr Putin and his loyalists are now reframing what they once claimed was the "de-Nazification" of Ukraine and the protection of Russian speakers as an existential fight against the entire "collective" West," writes Sarah Rainsford, the BBC Eastern Europe correspondent.
The "partial mobilization" of 300,000 up to as many as one million fighters did not start well. Call-ups were sent to the wrong people and the wrong addresses, and many young people started to flee the biggest country in the world.
"People aren’t beans. Units aren’t units, except on the map. If you are taking a lot of pissed-off, demoralized, scared, untrained humans, provide them with weapons and throw them right into a fighting pressure, it’s not necessary soldiers," stated Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats project at the American Enterprise Institute, for The Washington Post.
INFUSION OF SOLDIERS
"Russian President Vladimir Putin is betting that an impending infusion of drafted troops can change the dynamic on the battlefield in Ukraine, but analysts say he is losing time, as his military operation succumbs further to Ukrainian advances and shows signs that it needs more than just raw personnel to regain the initiative. Putin has distracted attention from the bleak battlefield picture in recent days by orchestrating referendums, declaring annexations and making nuclear threats — all part of an attempt to freeze Russian territorial gains amassed since February that are unravelling by the day. But those political machinations in Moscow [...] have been unable to mask the reality some 600 miles away [...]: Russia’s force is beleaguered and poorly managed — and in the immediate future, there may not be a silver bullet to fix it. Military analysts agree that Russia’s [...] mobilization of at least 300,000 reservists is unlikely to help Putin on the battlefield in a matter of days. Whether it can aid Moscow in stabilizing the situation longer term — into the late fall, winter and spring — is an open question," Paul Sonne writes for The Washington Post.
And as the two sides clash more and more violently, Ukraine has become a bloodbath, with increasing numbers of the dead and wounded. How many? This is not known, and cannot even be estimated, because completely different information comes from both sides. While the United Nations say that 5,996 civilians have been killed in the clashes, the numbers of the killed soldiers vary. The Ukrainians claim they have killed 61,330 Russians and lost about 9,000 fighters, and the Russians claim that they have killed 61,207 Ukrainian soldiers and lost 5,937 soldiers.
Dmitri Trenin: 'The abandoned dream of a "Greater Europe"'
In a column he wrote for RT, Dmitri Trenin, a Russian analyst and member of Russia’s Foreign and Defence Policy Council, writes that Vladimir Putin has proclaimed a new national idea for Russia in his latest speech.
" [...] Back in October 2001, addressing Berlin’s Bundestag [...], Putin proclaimed Russia’s 'European choice'. In February 2007, speaking at the Munich security conference, he lashed out at America’s global hegemony and laid down Russia’s own terms for relations with the West. In March 2014 [...], Putin welcomed Crimea and Sevastopol joining Russia, thus expanding the country’s borders [...]. To Putin, 'Greater Russia' [...] opposes not only America’s hegemonic policies, but also the West’s projection of its values as universal. This is an about-face not only from Gorbachev’s musings about a common European home, but also from Putin’s own travails in trying to forge a 'Greater Europe' from Lisbon to Vladivostok, and his efforts to find a way for Russia to join NATO. A 'Greater Europe' didn’t happen; a 'Greater Asia' [...] is de facto emerging. As to a 'Greater Russia', this requires more than a leader’s imagination. [...] The hybrid war with the West, of which Ukraine is only a small part, will doubtless reshape Russia. The question is, will it also transform it to fit the vision of a powerful economy [...], rather than the form of a 'Greater Russia'," he notes.
Kurir.rs/Andrija Ivanović
